Markets Tumble as Trump Announces New Tariffs
· Sensex & Nifty Fall Sharply: On Friday, both major indices opened deep in the red—Sensex dropping over 500 points, Nifty tumbling below 25,300—triggered by global uncertainty over potential new U.S. tariffs announced by Donald Trump
· IT Stocks Lead Decline: Weak Q1 results from TCS and Infosys further weighed down investor sentiment, dragging the market down over 300 points
· Technical Outlook: Analysts suggest the trend may remain weak short‐term, with support around 25,200–25,250 and resistance at 25,400–25,500
Rupee Under Pressure as Trade Risks Grow
- Currency Weakness: The INR is expected to open around ₹85.70–85.74/USD, pushed lower by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising trade tensions
- Global Influences: While oil prices edge up near $69/barrel, treasury yields remain steady around 4.36%, keeping pressure on emerging market currencies including the rupee
India Sets Record Pace in IPO Boom
- Largest IPO Market Outside U.S.: India has raised an impressive $6.7 billion in new listings so far this year, already surpassing 2024’s haul of $5.4 billion
- Pipeline Looks Strong: With expectations of more than $20 billion in deals, IPO momentum continues—driven by interest rate cuts, favorable economic conditions, and bullish domestic investor sentiment .
RBI’s Aggressive Liquidity Management via VRRR
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 7-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction worth ₹2.5 lakh crore to soak up excess liquidity
Monday’s earlier ₹1 trillion auctions had failed to clear surplus liquidity, prompting this larger operation ahead of the fortnight-end CRR reporting cycle .
Officials emphasized the move is aimed at maintaining liquidity within the LAF corridor, supporting the recent repo rate cut and stabilizing short-term interest rates
Earnings Watch: TCS, IREDA, Oswal Pumps, Avenue Supermarts & More
- TCS reported a 6% rise in net profit and 1.3% revenue growth YoY, declaring an ₹11/share dividend; however, margins slightly contracted .
- IREDA posted a 35% decline in consolidated Q1 profit, reflecting weakness in renewable energy financing Oswal Pumps saw strong FY25 results: revenue up 88% and PAT at ₹280.6 crore.
- Earlier today, companies like Avenue Supermarts, Elecon, and Emerald Finance also announced quarterly updates.
Buzz continues around Jane Street’s SEBI probe in India, with derivatives turnover dropping ~21%—highlighting a possible shift away from high-frequency trading
Top Stocks to Watch Today
Analysts highlighted several prominent buy recommendations on July 11, including:
- Equitas Small Finance Bank
- Medi Assist Healthcare Services, among others, based on favorable fundamentals and technical setups.
In addition, JPMorgan upheld its overweight rating on HUL, while Motilal Oswal reiterated a “buy” on Glenmark Pharma, targeting ₹2,430—focusing on its growth and margin outlook
Macro & Global Market Context
- U.S. Markets and Trade: Dow futures dipped following Trump’s threats of 35% tariffs on Canadian goods and 15–20% on other imports; mixed performance seen as investors digest tech earnings and crypto surges.
- Asian Markets Mixed: While Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+1.6%) and Shanghai (+1.1%) gained on strong airline earnings, Tokyo and Australia slipped slightly. India’s Sensex remained flat amid volatility
Crypto & Alternatives on the Rise
- Bitcoin Rally Continues: Crypto markets rallied with Bitcoin pushing past $113,000, lifted by U.S. Congressional crypto clarity and positive risk asset flows.
- Jane Street Options Slump: SEBI’s ban on Jane Street saw Indian options volume decline, though recovery is expected as other institutional players step in
Why This Matters Now
- Global Trade Threats: New tariffs risk triggering global trade disruptions—impacting exporters, currency, and equity inflows.
- Liquidity Pressures: RBI’s VRRR moves reflect its effort to balance growth without stoking inflation or asset bubbles.
- Tech Sector Vigilance: TCS trends are key barometers for IT capital spending sentiment.
- IPOs & Funding Momentum: Robust equity market and investor enthusiasm bode well for domestic capital markets despite foreign pullbacks.
- Diversified Opportunities: Corporate moves in consumer (HUL), pharma (Glenmark), and crypto offer varied investor angles.
