India’s Monsoon 2025: Above Normal but Uneven, Leaving Northeast and South Thirsty
With an active July that saw 254.8 mm of rain compared to a long-term average of 235.4 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that overall rainfall is 8% above normal as the country navigates the 2025 monsoon season. However, this abundance conceals glaring regional differences, as Southern and Northeastern India suffer from severe rainfall shortages. In the impacted areas, these irregular trends are causing worries about water resources, agriculture, and economic stability. How will this imbalance affect India’s future and what is causing it? Let’s examine this crucial season’s dynamics.
India received 458.2 mm of rain between June 1 and July 18, 2025, which was more than the average of 424.9 mm. With deficits of 18–25% in states like Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh, the Northeast—typically a rain-soaked region—faces a 20% shortfall. Rayalaseema is 30% below normal, while other southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala report a 15% deficit. In comparison, Central India, including Madhya Pradesh, experiences up to 30% excess rainfall, while Northwest India, especially Rajasthan and Punjab, enjoys a 25% surplus. Both farmers and policymakers are concerned about this unequal distribution, as seen on X.
The offender? While the Northeast and South have been starved by a weaker monsoon trough, Central and Northwest India have benefited from an overactive Bay of Bengal low-pressure system. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is neutral, according to the IMD, and by August, La Niña conditions are predicted, which could increase rainfall. But Cyclone Asna, which is brewing in the Arabian Sea, might further interfere with rainfall in the south. 60% of India’s population depends on agriculture, which is in danger due to stress on kharif crops like rice and pulses in areas with deficits and flooding risks from excessive rain in the Northwest.
Another issue is water management. Concerns about water scarcity are heightened by the Central Water Commission’s report that reservoirs in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are operating at 40–50% capacity. In the meantime, Madhya Pradesh’s overflowing dams increase the risk of flooding. Experts recommend long-term solutions like micro-irrigation and climate-resilient crops, despite the government’s response of ₹12,000 crore in agricultural aid for areas in need. Public annoyance is reflected in posts on X, where southern urbanites complain about waterlogging despite little rainfall and Assamese farmers beg for assistance.
India’s economy, food security, and rural communities depend heavily on this erratic monsoon, which is more than just the weather. These differences could have an impact on markets, prices, and livelihoods because the monsoon season accounts for 70% of India’s yearly rainfall. Are difficult times ahead, or will La Niña provide relief? Post your comments and check back for more information on India’s turbulent monsoon story.
