–Reliance Industries Q1 FY26 Earnings Preview: All Eyes on Retail and Jio as 15% Growth Looms
Strong performance in its retail and digital services verticals is expected to support Reliance Industries Ltd.’s (RIL) 15% year-over-year profit surge as it prepares to release its Q1 FY26 results as India’s corporate earnings season picks up steam. The diversified conglomerate is once again relying on its consumer-driven growth engines—Reliance Retail and Jio Platforms—to sustain the earnings momentum, even though its core oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business may exhibit muted results as a result of lower refining margins and weak crude exploration output.
Analysts predict that the telecom division’s steady ARPU (average revenue per user), increased foot traffic in organized retail, and volume growth in digital subscriptions will all contribute to double-digit increases in consolidated revenue and net profit. The company is still protected from sectoral shocks and worldwide oil volatility by this diversified revenue model, which is now a defining feature of RIL’s post-pandemic strategy.
Retail and Jio: Growth Catalysts for Q1
Consumer staples, electronics, and fashion are expected to drive Reliance Retail’s high double-digit revenue growth. The company currently operates over 18,000 stores and is aggressively expanding into tier-2 and tier-3 cities. The top line of this segment is being supported by the increased demand for organized retail following the pandemic, Reliance’s aggressive omni-channel push through JioMart, and alliances with international brands.
In the telecom sector, Jio is anticipated to continue to be profitable due to robust subscriber growth and steady ARPU, which is predicted to be between ₹182 and ₹185. Although spectrum-related costs continue to hurt margins, Jio’s capital investments should begin to pay off in the upcoming quarters as the rollout of 5G reaches critical mass in urban and semi-urban areas.
Oil & Gas: The Weak Link This Quarter
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division, Reliance’s traditional cash cow, is expected to grow modestly in Q1 due to supply chain corrections, tepid polymer demand, and lower refining margins. Furthermore, the KG-D6 basin, which was formerly a premier upstream asset, is experiencing output issues that are further depressing exploration and production earnings.
Nonetheless, the business has been progressively reducing the risk in its holdings, and investor sentiment has already taken into account the anticipated decline in oil and gas. The market is actually more interested in how Reliance intends to accelerate its new energy goals and use its strategic investments in solar modules, battery storage, and green hydrogen to influence its earnings trajectory going forward.
Investor Focus: Capex Plans, IPO Timelines, and Strategic Clarity
The street will be closely monitoring commentary on the upcoming initial public offerings (IPOs) of Jio Platforms and Reliance Retail, which are both anticipated to generate substantial shareholder value, in addition to quarterly numbers. Investors will also be watching for clues about leadership clarity as Mukesh Ambani’s succession planning quietly takes shape, particularly in light of his kids’ growing participation in important business verticals.
We’ll also be closely monitoring any updates on capital expenditure, especially in the areas of digital infrastructure and renewable energy. These observations will be essential as Reliance works to reposition itself as a tech-enabled, climate-resilient global player, rather than just as the biggest conglomerate in India.
